The results of the U.S. election will only indirectly impact currency exchange rates in Ukraine until at least January 20 (the inauguration of the newly elected president) and may influence public behavior in the short term. This view was shared with Channel 24 by Serhii Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board at Globus Bank.
According to Mamedov, a small number of Ukrainians are awaiting the election results, delaying real estate purchases or currency transactions as a precaution against uncertainty. "Any result will become a reality, but it's unlikely to create widespread euphoria or deep despair in society," he noted.
The banker believes that there is more reason for stability in the currency market than for concern.
First, elections are not a direct factor influencing currency rates. Instead, key drivers are the balance of supply and demand in the currency market, macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP growth), inflation levels, and budget deficit.
Second, the U.S. power transition follows democratic principles and is based on a system of checks and balances. Regardless of the newly elected president, they cannot single-handedly shape the entire country's future, effectively becoming "hostage" to the country's democratic framework.
Third, the U.S. dollar is not scarce in Ukraine, meaning any spikes in demand will likely be short-lived and emotionally driven.
The primary concern among Ukrainians, according to Mamedov, is the possibility of a "revision" of U.S. support programs for Ukraine should the most controversial candidate win, alongside potential political moves against Ukraine's interests. "Despite Ukraine's partial reliance on U.S. support (both military and financial), the main determinants of the exchange rate lie within Ukraine itself, independent of foreign politicians' agendas. Over the next three months, the currency situation in Ukraine will hinge on a range of economic factors rather than the 'outcomes' of the U.S. election," concluded Serhii Mamedov.
