Despite potential inflationary pressures from electricity tariff hikes, the expected increase in fuel excise duties in July, and possible business disruptions due to power supply issues, inflation in Ukraine will remain quite moderate by the end of the summer.
This was stated by Serhii Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairperson of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, during a broadcast on "5 Channel".
According to his forecast, the hryvnia devaluation will be almost zero over the summer, with the dollar exchange rate fluctuating within the "corridor" of 40-41 UAH.
"The National Bank is the main player in the foreign exchange market: currently, a 'managed flexibility' regime is in place, which prevents a sharp fall in the hryvnia. Furthermore, according to the regulator's forecasts, the situation in the Ukrainian economy will remain within previously announced predictions by the end of the year. Thus, in the second half of the year, inflation may accelerate to a maximum of 6%," noted the banker.
The expert elaborated on the development of lending to the energy sector, highlighting it as one of the urgent areas for the country during the war.
According to him, energy recovery and energy independence are among the priorities of the recently adopted Cabinet of Ministers' Lending Strategy. Moreover, some banks actively developing lending have signed a Memorandum on the Development of Energy Loans, which outlines unified loan conditions, the development of consortium lending (where a large loan is divided among several banks), and the creation of conditions for significantly lowering interest rates.
"Gradually, regulations are improving, and incentives for providing energy loans are being implemented. Additionally, some banks are already implementing their own preferential loan programs for purchasing energy-saving equipment, repairing existing equipment, and creating new energy generation facilities at enterprises. For such loan programs, interest rates are 10-20% lower than the market average. Let's also not forget about the preferential loan program for small and medium-sized businesses, '5-7-9,' which has been extended to cover entrepreneurs' 'energy' needs, along with interest compensation and partial loan amount reimbursement for condominium associations under special programs from local authorities," the banker emphasized.
The specialist mentioned that a significant part of energy lending programs is aimed at households: this includes loans for condominium associations and housing cooperatives under the "Energodim" and "GreenDIM" programs from the Energy Efficiency Fund, which allow for up to 70% reimbursement on the purchase of energy-saving equipment for apartment buildings (primarily heating systems) and up to one-third reimbursement for installing solar power stations and heat pumps.
"All conditions are being created to make Ukraine truly energy-independent and energy-efficient, which could become the foundation for rapid post-war economic growth," noted the expert.
Answering a question about whether power supply issues threaten the banking system's operations, he reminded that over 70% of bank branches are connected to the Power Banking system, allowing citizens to use all banking services without hindrance.
The specialist pointed out that there are currently almost no issues with ATM operations or with using bank cards in stores. Therefore, there is no need to withdraw all funds from cards. The banker believes that most citizens are aware that power outages do not lead to downtime in stores and supermarkets, as small and medium-sized businesses have quickly adapted to new challenges.
According to him, recent rolling blackouts did not significantly affect citizens' behavior, and there is no excessive "cash" rush or abnormal "movements" of cash withdrawals: cash is currently needed only for emergencies, equivalent to about 10% of available funds on a card.
"Despite prolonged enemy attacks on the energy system, the Ukrainian banking system is well-protected and prepared for potential power supply disruptions. Therefore, citizens can be confident that possible blackouts will not significantly affect bank operations," concluded Serhii Mamedov.
