Key financial indicators laid down in the state budget for 2024 are being met.
This was reported by Serhii Mamedov, Chairperson of the Board of Globus Bank.
The expert noted that this primarily concerns the "sluggish" devaluation of the hryvnia. For instance, during January-March, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia increased on average by 2.6% (from 38 UAH as of January 1 to 38.99 UAH as of April 1), which constitutes nearly a third of the planned annual devaluation. The budget envisages a rate of 40.7 UAH, which is 7% higher than the "starting" rate at the beginning of 2024.
The head of Globus Bank suggests that in conditions where budget forecasts align with the actual state of affairs, further devaluation of the hryvnia could amount to another 4.4%, and by the end of the year, the national currency theoretically would depreciate at a modest pace averaging 0.5% per month (approximately by 0.19 UAH).
According to his statement, during the first quarter, exchange rate fluctuations, both upward and downward, occur with slight deviations from the "base" rate, not exceeding 2% on a weekly basis. At the same time, the acceptable "margin" for exchange rate changes is up to 5% from the base rate.
"We understand that the market is dynamic, however, the regime of 'managed flexibility' introduced by the regulator suppresses any manifestations of unjustified currency rate increases by satisfying demand through active currency interventions in the interbank market. This 'formula' so far justifies expectations, as further liberalization of the currency market will depend on a number of economic and military circumstances, among which a cornerstone is the volume of macro-financial assistance covering massive budget expenditures, as well as sufficient military-technical assistance for successful combat against the enemy," summarized Serhii Mamedov.
