The National Bank will direct its efforts toward maintaining a balance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, which will serve as a safeguard against sharp currency fluctuations.
This opinion was shared by Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Management Board of GLOBUS BANK.
"Throughout the year, the NBU's monetary policy has been quite effective and balanced, which has enabled the activation of lending and the gradual reorientation of hryvnia deposits towards longer terms—from 1 year to 2.5 years—with the highest interest rates currently fixed at up to 15% annually. The 'managed flexibility' regime introduced by the National Bank in the foreign exchange market has significantly reduced the demand for foreign currency and allowed the return of market-based exchange rate regulation. However, to prevent uncontrolled processes, the NBU has retained effective market control mechanisms, including currency interventions, which are crucial for the normal functioning of the market during wartime," the expert emphasized.
The banker is convinced that the foreign exchange market is unlikely to experience significant changes by the end of the year. He suggests that fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate will remain within the current "corridor" of 41.3 UAH to 42 UAH, which aligns with the exchange rate assumptions embedded in the 2024 state budget.
"Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank's exchange rate policy has been quite effective. Despite economic and wartime factors, there has been no market panic or frenzy for some time now; the dollar and euro are not considered 'scarce,' and there is no rush to acquire foreign currency. Of course, most citizens perceive exchange rates as an indicator of the economic situation in the country. Therefore, we expect that the NBU will continue to act effectively and, when necessary, decisively. Despite potential new, yet unknown military and economic challenges, the overall situation in the foreign exchange market will remain stable and predictable: the hryvnia does not face the threat of uncontrolled devaluation," concluded Serhii Mamedov.