The US dollar is unlikely to exceed UAH 46 by the end of the year, while the euro may range between UAH 52.5 and UAH 54 — Serhii Mamedov

If the security and energy situation does not deteriorate significantly by the end of 2026, the foreign exchange market is likely to remain under control. The official US dollar exchange rate is expected to stay below UAH 46 per dollar at the end of December. The euro, however, may show considerably greater fluctuations, as its value in Ukraine will also be affected by the EUR/USD exchange rate. The euro is expected to trade within an indicative range of UAH 52.5–54 per euro towards the end of the year. 

This was stated in a new podcast on the Finance.ua YouTube channel by Serhii Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairperson of the Management Board of GLOBUS BANK.

According to him, it would be inaccurate to name an exact exchange rate for 31 December at this stage, as the foreign exchange market in the fourth quarter will be affected by a range of factors: the intensity of missile and drone attacks, the state of the energy sector, the country's import needs, export capacity, the amount of international financial assistance, inflation and public sentiment.

“We are in the midst of a brutal and unpredictable war, so naming the US dollar exchange rate for 31 December down to the last kopeck today would be pure guesswork. But the fact that we cannot give an exact figure does not mean that we cannot understand the dynamics that will shape the foreign exchange market,” the banker emphasised.

According to his forecast, the National Bank of Ukraine will continue to play a key role in the market. The “managed flexibility” regime allows for both hryvnia depreciation and appreciation, depending on the balance of supply and demand on the interbank market. At the same time, the NBU will use foreign exchange interventions to smooth out excessive fluctuations.

Traditionally, demand for foreign currency may increase towards the end of the year due to higher government spending, a rise in imports, businesses completing their annual contracts and seasonal demand from households.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the National Bank's net foreign currency sales amounted to approximately USD 11.4 billion, compared with around USD 10.3 billion in the same period of 2025. For this reason, Serhii Mamedov expects that the volume of interventions in October–December 2026 may reach approximately USD 10–11 billion.

“This is not a predetermined figure. The National Bank will sell as much foreign currency as necessary to keep the market under control. Therefore, the exchange rate will not remain static, but there is equally no reason to expect the US dollar to suddenly “take off” and reach astronomical levels,” he noted.

Additional demand for foreign currency may also emerge on the cash market towards the end of the year due to the traditional increase in hryvnia spending. For comparison, in December 2025, expenditure from the state budget's general fund amounted to almost UAH 650 billion, compared with approximately UAH 374 billion in November.

At the same time, according to the banker, the hryvnia has sufficiently strong instruments to compete with the traditional tendency of households to convert their savings into foreign currency. In particular, interest rates on certain fixed-term deposits may reach 17.5% per annum, while yields on hryvnia-denominated domestic government bonds range from approximately 15% to 16.5%, depending on maturity.

Household demand trends are also telling: in the fourth quarter of 2025, net demand for cash foreign currency amounted to approximately USD 2.2 billion, compared with USD 3.7 billion a year earlier.

Commenting on the exchange rate outlook for the end of the year, Serhii Mamedov noted that in 2024 the US dollar rose from approximately UAH 38 to UAH 42.04, an increase of 10.6%, whereas in 2025 it moved only from UAH 42.03 to UAH 42.39, or less than 1%.

As of 1 January 2026, the official exchange rate stood at approximately UAH 42.35 per US dollar. Therefore, even if the rate approaches UAH 46 by the end of December, its annual increase will amount to approximately 8.6% — less than in 2024.

“Unless the most adverse military and energy-related events occur, the US dollar exchange rate is unlikely to exceed UAH 46 by the end of the year. Rather than a sharp currency spike, we may therefore see gradual, controlled movements, with periods of both hryvnia depreciation and appreciation,” the banker forecasts.

He also drew particular attention to the euro exchange rate. Unlike the US dollar, its value in hryvnia depends both on the hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate in Ukraine and on the euro-to-dollar exchange rate on the global market.

Therefore, even if the US dollar exchange rate in Ukraine changes only slightly, the euro may appreciate or depreciate considerably due to global currency fluctuations. If the US dollar is trading at around UAH 45–46 towards the end of the year, Mamedov considers approximately UAH 52.5–54 a reasonable baseline range for the euro.

At the same time, the range of uncertainty for the European currency will be wider, as Ukraine's war-related, economic and budgetary risks will be compounded by the policies of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, inflation, the economic situation in Europe and the United States, as well as global geopolitical developments.

The banker also identified inflation as one of the factors affecting the foreign exchange market. At the same time, he emphasised that price movements and exchange rate fluctuations do not necessarily occur in tandem: accelerating inflation does not in itself mean that the hryvnia will depreciate by a similar magnitude.

“We should expect neither a static exchange rate nor a currency crisis. The exchange rate will fluctuate — that is normal under the “managed flexibility” regime. What matters much more is that these changes remain controlled and the foreign exchange market stays balanced,” Serhii Mamedov concluded.