In the second half of the year, the general economic situation will not deviate from macroeconomic forecasts, and the risks of a collapse of the national currency will be minimal.
This opinion was expressed by Serhii Mamedov, Chairperson of the Board of Globus Bank.
According to him, the approval of a $50 billion loan from the G7 countries in June, which will be repaid using the frozen assets of the aggressor country, is a powerful financial "injection" for Ukraine for 2025. He recalled that next year the projected volume of macro-financial support compared to 2024 is expected to decrease by 1.5 times to $25 billion per year.
"Such powerful support should eliminate any unnecessary 'fears' regarding the stability of the Ukrainian economy and the fate of the national currency. At least for now, Ukraine has strong protection that will allow for a steady development of the economy without concerns," the banker believes.
According to the expert, in the second half of the year, the economic situation will be quite predictable and will most likely align with budget forecasts: 1) by the end of the year, inflation in the country will not exceed 8.2% (from January to May inclusive, inflation was 2%); 2) GDP growth will slow down to 3% per year; 3) hryvnia depreciation is expected to be around 8-9%.
"In April-May, we observed an acceleration of depreciation, which totaled up to 4% in 2 months. From January to May inclusive, the hryvnia lost over 7% of its value - from 38 UAH/USD to 40.53 UAH/USD. However, in June, as anticipated, the depreciation was almost zero: as of July 1, the official exchange rate of the dollar slightly decreased by 0.08 UAH and stood at 40.45 UAH. Additionally, after the increase in electricity tariffs and the expected increase in fuel excise duties, inflation in the country will become more noticeable than it was in the first 5 months. However, according to the calculations of the National Bank, in the second half of the year, inflation will be in the range of 5-6%, which does not contradict the previous forecasts of the regulator," concluded the head of Globus Bank.
