In wartime conditions, the monetary policy implemented by the National Bank is quite effective and does not raise concerns about the future of the national currency.
This opinion was expressed by Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK.
He reminded that in 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar is expected to be 40.7 UAH, and by the end of the year, it could reach 42.1 UAH. Meanwhile, the regulator will implement a strategy for further liberalization of the foreign exchange market by gradually lifting existing restrictions. In addition, the relative exchange rate stability in the second half of the year will be supported by Ukraine receiving over $37 billion in external macro-financial assistance, which will help cover part of the non-military budget expenditures. The country's international currency reserves, which fluctuated between $35 billion and $42 billion in the first half of the year, provide the flexibility to regulate supply and demand as needed.
"By the end of the year, we will still see exchange rate changes because the market is alive and has quite 'active' players, the main one being the National Bank of Ukraine. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be any 'cataclysms' on the foreign exchange market that would nullify the achievements of monetary policy," the banker believes.
The expert emphasized that it is extremely difficult to predict the course of the war and its possible consequences for the economy and society.
"War is an incredible test for the country. It is a 'remark' that can negate any achievements and successes. The course of the war directly affects the lives of millions of people and the fate of the country. However, the fight continues, which means Ukraine has enough strength to achieve the important and necessary victory," concluded Serhii Mamedov.
