Dmytro Zamotaiev, Director of the Retail Business Department at Globus Bank, outlined the key factors that may influence the interest rates on hryvnia deposits in September. The expert highlighted the following:
- Key interest rate and the rate on 3-month deposit certificates as the primary sources of deposit returns. Currently, the key interest rate is fixed at 13%, and the rate on 3-month deposit certificates is 16%. If these important economic indicators are revised, deposit rates may be adjusted accordingly.
- Inflation rates. In an optimistic scenario, if inflation at the end of 2024 is lower than the forecasted 8.5%, the profitability of hryvnia deposits could indirectly increase.
- A stable and controlled situation in the foreign exchange market. By the end of the year, the exchange rate of the dollar is expected to be around 42.1 UAH/USD. In September, a permissible and forecasted depreciation of the hryvnia may reach 1-1.5%, with exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 41-42 UAH/USD.
The economic situation in the country amid the ongoing war,** particularly the impact of potential power outages on business operations, consumer prices, grain harvests, and the demand for numerous state loan programs that stimulate the development of small and medium-sized businesses.
"At present, the economic factors that directly or indirectly affect banking activities, and specifically the development of deposit programs, are not threatening," stated Dmytro Zamotaiev. "For instance, commercial banks are actively competing for depositors, launching deposit programs with the most attractive terms for clients. There are no signs of program reductions or significant cuts in hryvnia deposit returns. Additionally, a growing trend is the shift from ultra-short-term deposits to longer ones (up to 2.5 years), where the returns are on average 50% higher than those for ultra-short-term deposits," explained Zamotaiev.
